Lech Poznan 2-1 Radomiak Radom — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.3
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.82
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.25
X/1
22%
3.7
X/2
5%
12.35
X/X
9%
6.43
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
21.15
2/2
12%
9.35
2/X
5%
17.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.8pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.8pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Radomiak Radom EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.92/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.69
+7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
23.6 Crosses 16.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Radomiak Radom
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.57 xG 0.95
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
344 Passes 264
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-2 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
30.07.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
24.04.2023 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 1-1 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
09.10.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-0 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
11.12.2021 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-1 HT 2-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
23.07.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-1
AWAY Radomiak Radom
1.50 xG 1.32
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
440 Passes 289
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan nicked a narrow win over Radomiak Radom 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 58% of the ball to Radomiak Radom's 42%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.50 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Radomiak Radom.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?

Lech Poznan 2-1 Radomiak Radom in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 57%, draw 21%, Radomiak Radom 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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