Audace Cerignola 4-2 Crotone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
44%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
24%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
18.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
44%
Away Win
39%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Audace Cerignola EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Crotone EU Bookmakers 43%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.77/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.09
+54% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
240 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Audace Cerignola
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Crotone
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2023 Crotone Crotone 1-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
08.04.2023 Crotone Crotone 0-1 HT 0-0 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola İTC
04.12.2022 Audace Cerignola Audace Cerignola 0-1 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Audace Cerignola
4-2
AWAY Crotone
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 13
11 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Audace Cerignola vs Crotone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Audace Cerignola got the better of Crotone 4-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Crotone at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Audace Cerignola had 58% of the ball to Crotone's 42%, shots finished 17-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Audace Cerignola and 0.67 for Crotone.

What was the final score of Audace Cerignola vs Crotone?

Audace Cerignola 4-2 Crotone in the Italy - Serie C on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Audace Cerignola vs Crotone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crotone win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Audace Cerignola 30%, draw 26%, Crotone 44%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crotone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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