Marsilya 2-2 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
19%
3.12
6+ Goals
8%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 31% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.24
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.29
X/2
15%
6.07
X/X
8%
5.04
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
11%
3.93
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.0pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
1.44/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.31
+3% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
394 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
21.3 Crosses 17.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Monaco
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 1.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
432 Passes 316
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-2 HT 2-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
28.01.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.11.2022 Monaco Monaco 2-3 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
06.03.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 0-1 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
11.09.2021 Monaco Monaco 0-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
23.01.2021 Monaco Monaco 3-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
2-2
AWAY Monaco
2.49 xG 0.47
69% Ball Possession 31%
22 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 1
517 Passes 176
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
35 Box Touches 8
30 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya and Monaco shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Marsilya had 69% of the ball to Monaco's 31%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.49 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Marsilya and 1.67 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Monaco?

Marsilya 2-2 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 41%, draw 26%, Monaco 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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