Deportivo Pasto 1-4 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.1pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.6pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.07/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.26
-16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
14.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
17.9 Crosses 13.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 1.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
265 Passes 307
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
11.04.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
09.10.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
17.04.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
14.08.2021 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
15.02.2021 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1-4
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.30 xG 1.12
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
334 Passes 267
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima cruised past Deportivo Pasto 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 34% — and on the day Deportes Tolima made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 55% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 45%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.30 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.33 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?

Deportivo Pasto 1-4 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 34%, draw 32%, Deportes Tolima 34%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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