Puebla 1-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Jan 2024

Puebla
1-1 HT 1-1
Toluca
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Puebla vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.77
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
11%
7.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.77 — our 28% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.43
1/2
8%
21.75
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
10%
6.89
X/2
16%
4.86
X/X
13%
5.67
2/1
5%
29.5
2/2
17%
2.75
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+4.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.4pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 51%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.18/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.89
-7% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
18.1 Crosses 18.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Puebla vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Toluca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.67 xG 1.37
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
276 Passes 362
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Toluca Toluca 0-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
08.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-2 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
03.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
06.11.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
21.03.2021 Toluca Toluca 4-4 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK

Puebla 1-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
1-1
AWAY Toluca
1.04 xG 0.79
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
249 Passes 416
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla and Toluca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Puebla had 41% of the ball to Toluca's 59%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.04 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Puebla and 1.50 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Toluca?

Puebla 1-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Puebla 34%, draw 26%, Toluca 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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