Tijuana 1-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Jan 2024

Tijuana
1-1 HT 1-0
Guadalajara
📅27/01/2024 · 🕒06:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Tijuana vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.43
6+ Goals
11%
23.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.45
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
16%
4.85
X/2
15%
5.81
X/X
13%
3.98
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
11%
4.44
2/X
9%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 34%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.72/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.34
+16% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.0 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Tijuana vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.72 xG 1.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
271 Passes 362
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.08.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
16.02.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
08.09.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
20.04.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
21.10.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
18.04.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK

Tijuana 1-1 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-1
AWAY Guadalajara
0.77 xG 1.58
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
260 Passes 347
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana and Guadalajara shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Tijuana had 46% of the ball to Guadalajara's 54%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.77 to 1.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tijuana and 1.50 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Guadalajara?

Tijuana 1-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 40%, draw 29%, Guadalajara 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tijuana), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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