Melgar 2-3 Cusco FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.34
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.19
No
55%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
70%
-12.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+3.7pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Cusco FC EU Bookmakers 14%
-11% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -15%
2.02/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.93
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 72%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
22.1 Crosses 14.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cusco FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.66 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
351 Passes 218
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2023 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
01.04.2023 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
04.08.2021 Melgar Melgar 2-2 HT 1-2 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
22.02.2020 Cusco FC Cusco FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
24.08.2019 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 1-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
09.03.2019 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
2-3
AWAY Cusco FC
3.82 xG 1.45
73% Ball Possession 27%
37 Total Shots 7
13 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 2
488 Passes 147
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
47 Box Touches 15
34 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Cusco FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cusco FC edged past Melgar 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Melgar carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melgar had 73% of the ball to Cusco FC's 27%, shots finished 37-7, expected goals 3.82 to 1.45 — on chances, Melgar could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cusco FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melgar and 1.50 for Cusco FC.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Cusco FC?

Melgar 2-3 Cusco FC in the Peru - Premier League on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Cusco FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Melgar 58%, draw 23%, Cusco FC 19%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ BTTS No
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