Arezzo 2-4 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 27 Jan 2025

📅27/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.71
Over
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.65
2-3
43%
1.71
4-5
21%
3.94
6+
8%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
13%
X/1
19%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.6pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.3pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arezzo The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera The Market 19%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.52/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.39
-12% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
359 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arezzo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Pontedera
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.09.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 0-1 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
09.02.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 1-1 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
30.09.2023 Arezzo Arezzo 1-1 HT 1-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
23.09.2020 Pontedera Pontedera 1-2 HT 0-0 Arezzo Arezzo İTK
03.11.2019 Pontedera Pontedera 2-1 HT 1-1 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
24.10.2015 Pontedera Pontedera 1-1 HT 1-1 Arezzo Arezzo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arezzo
2-4
AWAY Pontedera
58% Ball Possession 42%
23 Total Shots 14
15 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arezzo vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera saw off Arezzo 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Arezzo at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arezzo had 58% of the ball to Pontedera's 42%, shots finished 23-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arezzo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Arezzo and 1.00 for Pontedera.

What was the final score of Arezzo vs Pontedera?

Arezzo 2-4 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 27/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arezzo vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arezzo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Arezzo 50%, draw 29%, Pontedera 20%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arezzo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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