Merthyr Town 1-4 AFC Telford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 27 Jan 2026

📅27/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
32%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.97
4-5 Goals
23%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
6.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+7.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
38%
-6.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.3pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Telford United EU Bookmakers 42%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.16/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/1.18
-14% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 452 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AFC Telford United
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
25 Total Shots 19
14 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.11.2025 AFC Telford United AFC Telford United 2-4 HT 1-3 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merthyr Town
1-4
AWAY AFC Telford United
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Telford United ran out comfortable winners over Merthyr Town 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Merthyr Town at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Merthyr Town had 47% of the ball to AFC Telford United's 53%, shots finished 13-11.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?

Merthyr Town 1-4 AFC Telford United in the England - Conference on 27/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 44%, draw 24%, AFC Telford United 32%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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