Luton Town 2-6 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 27 Feb 2024

Luton Town
2-6 HT 1-3
Manchester City
📅27/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Luton Town vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.78
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
55%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.63
Over 2.5
52%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
6.33
2-3 Goals
36%
2.11
4-5 Goals
26%
2.53
6+ Goals
11%
5.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.33 — our 27% vs market 11.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
14.95
1/2
8%
20.7
1/X
7%
22.7
X/1
8%
21.35
X/2
21%
3.6
X/X
11%
9.22
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.44
2/X
5%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
10%
+11.4pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.8pp
55%
Away Win
74%
-19.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
34%
+14.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
66%
-14.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.5pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luton Town v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 78%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
0.66/2.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.62/0.80
+95% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +80%
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
199 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 476 · 82%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 43.6
9.0 Crosses 20.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.3

Luton Town vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Manchester City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.33 xG 1.61
35% Ball Possession 65%
4 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
224 Passes 513
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Luton Town 2-6 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
2-6
AWAY Manchester City
2.63 xG 3.77
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 15
2 Corners 2
311 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City ran out comfortable winners over Luton Town 6-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 6-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Luton Town had 43% of the ball to Manchester City's 57%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 2.63 to 3.77.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Manchester City?

Luton Town 2-6 Manchester City in the England - FA Cup on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 21%, draw 24%, Manchester City 55%. The final score 2-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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