İngiltere (K) 5-1 İtalya (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 27 Feb 2024

📅27/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.32
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.0
6+ Goals
13%
9.22
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.0 — our 28% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-10.0pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.2pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+7.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.6pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İngiltere (K) EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya (K) EU Bookmakers 14%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.48/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/3.75
+45% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -26%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 71%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
24.0 Crosses 7.2
0.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İngiltere (K)
1W-1D-0L
AWAY İtalya (K)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.54 xG 0.37
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
480 Passes 214
83% Pass Accuracy 66%
36 Box Touches 9
36 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
19.02.2023 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) 2-1 HT 1-0 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) KACK
07.04.2017 İngiltere (K) İngiltere (K) 1-1 HT 0-0 İtalya (K) İtalya (K) HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İngiltere (K)
5-1
AWAY İtalya (K)
4.50 xG 1.22
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
621 Passes 229
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 14
30 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İngiltere (K) vs İtalya (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İngiltere (K) ran out comfortable winners over İtalya (K) 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İngiltere (K) as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, İngiltere (K) had 69% of the ball to İtalya (K)'s 31%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 4.50 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, İngiltere (K) had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for İngiltere (K) and 1.00 for İtalya (K).

What was the final score of İngiltere (K) vs İtalya (K)?

İngiltere (K) 5-1 İtalya (K) in the Friendlies on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İngiltere (K) vs İtalya (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a İngiltere (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split İngiltere (K) 61%, draw 20%, İtalya (K) 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İngiltere (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (İngiltere (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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