Lech Poznan 0-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 27 Feb 2024

Lech Poznan
0-1 HT 0-0
Pogon Szczecin
📅27/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Cup – 2023/2024

Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 28% vs market 20.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.17
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
13%
5.17
X/2
11%
6.23
X/X
12%
5.02
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
17%
4.12
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 37%
-57% / -57% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
0.59/2.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.59
-61% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
397 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.4 Yellow Cards –

Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.32 xG 1.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 5-0 HT 3-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
02.04.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
11.09.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
23.06.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin HAZ
26.02.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-3 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
28.08.2021 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Lech Poznan 0-1 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
0-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin edged past Lech Poznan 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Pogon Szczecin made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 56% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 44%, shots finished 14-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.83 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Lech Poznan 0-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Cup on 27/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 39%, draw 26%, Pogon Szczecin 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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