Bologna 2-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Feb 2025

📅27/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.78
Over Pick
50%
1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.74
No
50%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2.99
2-3
39%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.65
6+
11%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.65 — our 23% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.13
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
10%
12.45
X/1
12%
6.07
X/2
14%
5.6
X/X
10%
4.23
2/1
10%
31.0
2/2
14%
3.63
2/X
6%
12.3
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan The Market 40%
+8% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.18/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.39
+18% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
15.4 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Milan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.96 xG 1.76
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
365 Passes 393
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.01.2024 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
21.08.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
15.04.2023 Bologna Bologna 1-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
27.08.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
04.04.2022 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
23.10.2021 Bologna Bologna 2-4 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
2-1
AWAY Milan
2.08 xG 0.78
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
365 Passes 246
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Bologna vs Milan
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Bologna squeezed past Milan 2-1. The 0-1 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.

From a near-even 37% / 26% / 37% read, it was Bologna who turned the coin-flip their way.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 50% and both teams to score at 50%. At 1.74 (~57%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

The match data tells the story: Bologna had 57% of the ball to Milan's 43%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.08 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bologna's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bologna and 1.83 for Milan.

Bologna vs Milan Result & Final Score

Bologna 2-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 27/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Bologna vs Milan Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bologna 37%, draw 26%, Milan 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37)
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