Arema Malang 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 27 Mar 2024

Arema Malang
0-1 HT 0-1
Persebaya Surabaya
📅27/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Indonesia League 1 – 2023/2024

Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arema Malang v Persebaya Surabaya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arema Malang EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 40%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +29%
1.06/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.01
-24% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / +32%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arema Malang
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
234 Passes 285
The Meetings
01.10.2022 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-3 HT 2-2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
23.02.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
06.11.2021 Arema Malang Arema Malang 2-2 HT 2-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
12.12.2019 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 4-1 HT 2-0 Arema Malang Arema Malang ENDL1
POST-MATCH Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya squeezed past Arema Malang 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Persebaya Surabaya found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Arema Malang and 2.50 for Persebaya Surabaya.

What was the final score of Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Arema Malang 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya in the Indonesia League 1 on 27/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arema Malang vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arema Malang 37%, draw 24%, Persebaya Surabaya 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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