Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 27 Mar 2024

📅27/03/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.74
Over 2.5
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.84/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.74
+19% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
26.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
09.02.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
02.09.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
02.02.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
19.08.2021 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-3 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
04.09.2020 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
POST-MATCH Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alebrijes de Oaxaca squeezed past Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alebrijes de Oaxaca as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 2.17 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 27/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alebrijes de Oaxaca win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Alebrijes de Oaxaca 48%, draw 29%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alebrijes de Oaxaca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alebrijes de Oaxaca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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