Ayacucho FC 2-3 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 27 Mar 2025

📅27/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
51%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
20%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
51%
Away Win
56%
-5.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayacucho FC EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 60%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
0.83/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.75
-23% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
23.3 Crosses 19.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayacucho FC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Melgar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.79 xG 1.18
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
193 Passes 360
65% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.10.2022 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 0-0 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC PER
22.05.2022 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
18.09.2021 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 1-0 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC PER
12.04.2021 Melgar Melgar 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC PER
01.11.2020 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Melgar Melgar PER
05.10.2020 Melgar Melgar 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayacucho FC Ayacucho FC PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ayacucho FC
2-3
AWAY Melgar
1.19 xG 1.37
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
220 Passes 288
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 19
7 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ayacucho FC vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar squeezed past Ayacucho FC 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ayacucho FC had 44% of the ball to Melgar's 56%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.19 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ayacucho FC and 0.83 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Ayacucho FC vs Melgar?

Ayacucho FC 2-3 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 27/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayacucho FC vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ayacucho FC 23%, draw 26%, Melgar 51%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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