Al Ain 1-2 Al Ahli FC Dubai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UAE - League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
31%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.43
No
41%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.54
2-3 Goals
44%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
9%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
12%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+5.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
38%
-7.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
66%
-6.9pp
41%
BTTS No
34%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ain EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli FC Dubai EU Bookmakers 42%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
0.85/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.47
-25% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 75%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
13.9 Crosses 14.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ain
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Ahli FC Dubai
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.71 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 Passes 276
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 0-3 HT 0-2 Al Ain Al Ain BAE
01.04.2023 Al Ain Al Ain 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
29.10.2022 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Ain Al Ain BAE
30.04.2022 Al Ain Al Ain 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
29.10.2021 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Ain Al Ain BAE
05.02.2021 Al Ain Al Ain 1-4 HT 0-1 Al Ahli FC Dubai Al Ahli FC Dubai BAE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ain
1-2
AWAY Al Ahli FC Dubai
0.50 xG 2.39
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
416 Passes 210
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ain vs Al Ahli FC Dubai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli FC Dubai nicked a narrow win over Al Ain 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ain at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Al Ain had 63% of the ball to Al Ahli FC Dubai's 37%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.50 to 2.39 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ahli FC Dubai's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Al Ain and 1.33 for Al Ahli FC Dubai.

What was the final score of Al Ain vs Al Ahli FC Dubai?

Al Ain 1-2 Al Ahli FC Dubai in the UAE - League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ain vs Al Ahli FC Dubai?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ain win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Al Ain 43%, draw 26%, Al Ahli FC Dubai 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Ain) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ain) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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