Libertad 1-1 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 27 Apr 2024

Libertad
1-1 HT 0-0
Orense
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Libertad vs Orense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
34%
2.88
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.52
Over 2.5
30%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.03
No
64%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+1.6pp
34%
Draw
31%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.8pp
70%
Under 2.5
62%
+7.8pp
30%
Over 2.5
38%
-7.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.2pp
64%
BTTS No
55%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Libertad v Orense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -12%
1.00/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.25
-39% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
17.9 Crosses 15.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1

Libertad vs Orense Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Orense
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.03 xG 0.76
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
176 Passes 324
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Orense Orense 3-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
30.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1

Libertad 1-1 Orense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-1
AWAY Orense
0.60 xG 1.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
340 Passes 191
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
11 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad and Orense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 34% / 26%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (70%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.

On the day, Libertad had 61% of the ball to Orense's 39%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.60 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Orense led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Libertad and 1.50 for Orense.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Orense?

Libertad 1-1 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Libertad 40%, draw 34%, Orense 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Libertad), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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