Debrecen 1-0 Ujpest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
14%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Debrecen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ujpest EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
2.09/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.59
+23% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
28.2 Crosses 21.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Debrecen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ujpest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 1.60
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
250 Passes 380
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2024 Ujpest Ujpest 1-2 HT 0-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
30.09.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-0 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
05.03.2023 Ujpest Ujpest 1-1 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
16.10.2022 Debrecen Debrecen 4-1 HT 1-1 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
12.03.2022 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-2 Ujpest Ujpest MAC
20.11.2021 Ujpest Ujpest 3-1 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Debrecen
1-0
AWAY Ujpest
3.85 xG 0.05
65% Ball Possession 35%
29 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 5
473 Passes 214
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
46 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Debrecen vs Ujpest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Debrecen edged past Ujpest 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Debrecen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Debrecen had 65% of the ball to Ujpest's 35%, shots finished 29-2, expected goals 3.85 to 0.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Debrecen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ujpest led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Debrecen and 1.67 for Ujpest.

What was the final score of Debrecen vs Ujpest?

Debrecen 1-0 Ujpest in the Hungary - NB I on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Debrecen vs Ujpest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Debrecen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Debrecen 48%, draw 25%, Ujpest 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Debrecen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Debrecen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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