Queretaro 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 27 Apr 2024

Queretaro
1-1 HT 0-0
Pumas UNAM
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Queretaro v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.36/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.39
+3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -28%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
259 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 80%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
19.7 Crosses 23.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.93 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
248 Passes 332
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-0 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
04.08.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro CONLK
03.04.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.09.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
15.01.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-3 HT 1-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
15.08.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK

Queretaro 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
1-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.91 xG 1.07
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
215 Passes 355
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro and Pumas UNAM shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Queretaro had 41% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 59%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 1.91 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Queretaro and 1.83 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM?

Queretaro 1-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 35%, draw 26%, Pumas UNAM 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pumas UNAM) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Under 2.5
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