Widzew Lodz 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 28% vs market 24.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.5
1/2
8%
24.45
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
9%
7.43
X/2
18%
4.44
X/X
14%
4.72
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.67
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 51%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.09/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.90
+9% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
317 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
18.9 Crosses 19.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Widzew Lodz
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.65 xG 1.79
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
301 Passes 390
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
29.10.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
16.04.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
02.10.2022 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-0 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Widzew Lodz
0-1
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.62 xG 2.11
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 12
251 Passes 430
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 49
11 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Widzew Lodz vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa edged past Widzew Lodz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Widzew Lodz had 40% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 60%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 0.62 to 2.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rakow Czestochowa's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Widzew Lodz and 1.00 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Widzew Lodz vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Widzew Lodz 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Widzew Lodz vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Widzew Lodz 33%, draw 26%, Rakow Czestochowa 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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