Domzale 1-1 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
43%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.46
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 26% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
25%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
22%
+7.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.7pp
43%
Away Win
54%
-11.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Domzale EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 58%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.09/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.13
+11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Domzale
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Maribor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Maribor Maribor 3-0 HT 2-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
04.11.2023 Domzale Domzale 1-2 HT 1-1 Maribor Maribor SLVN
26.08.2023 Maribor Maribor 1-1 HT 1-1 Domzale Domzale SLVN
22.04.2023 Maribor Maribor 1-0 HT 0-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
23.02.2023 Domzale Domzale 1-1 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
22.10.2022 Maribor Maribor 0-3 HT 0-1 Domzale Domzale SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Domzale
1-1
AWAY Maribor
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Domzale vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Domzale and Maribor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Domzale had 44% of the ball to Maribor's 56%, shots finished 9-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Domzale and 1.33 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Domzale vs Maribor?

Domzale 1-1 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Domzale vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Domzale 29%, draw 28%, Maribor 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Maribor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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