Villarreal 1-0 Espanyol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 27 Apr 2025

Villarreal
1-0 HT 0-0
Espanyol
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Villarreal vs Espanyol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.38
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
13%
7.74
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.7
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
17.8
X/1
15%
3.97
X/2
7%
14.4
X/X
12%
7.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.75
2/2
9%
11.65
2/X
5%
20.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.75 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.0pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Espanyol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Espanyol EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.92/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.67
+12% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +0%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
440 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
18.3 Crosses 13.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Villarreal vs Espanyol Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Espanyol
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.27 xG 1.15
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
438 Passes 272
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.09.2024 Espanyol Espanyol 1-2 HT 1-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
27.04.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 4-2 HT 0-1 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
09.11.2022 Espanyol Espanyol 0-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
27.02.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 5-1 HT 3-0 Espanyol Espanyol İS1
21.08.2021 Espanyol Espanyol 0-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
19.01.2020 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Espanyol Espanyol İS1

Villarreal 1-0 Espanyol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
1-0
AWAY Espanyol
1.48 xG 0.97
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 6
281 Passes 375
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
34 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Espanyol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal squeezed past Espanyol 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Villarreal had 45% of the ball to Espanyol's 55%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.48 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Villarreal and 1.00 for Espanyol.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Espanyol?

Villarreal 1-0 Espanyol in the Spain - Primera Liga on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Espanyol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 55%, draw 24%, Espanyol 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Over 2.5
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