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Lyon (K) vs Arsenal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lyon (K) v Arsenal (K) — Team-Based Signals
Lyon (K) vs Arsenal (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
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0-1
HT 0-1
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Lyon (K)
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Lyon (K) 1-4 Arsenal (K) — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal (K) ran out comfortable winners over Lyon (K) 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Lyon (K) at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Lyon (K) had 45% of the ball to Arsenal (K)'s 55%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.77 to 1.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lyon (K).
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lyon (K) had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lyon (K) and 0.50 for Arsenal (K).
What was the final score of Lyon (K) vs Arsenal (K)?
Lyon (K) 1-4 Arsenal (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lyon (K) vs Arsenal (K)?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lyon (K) 47%, draw 29%, Arsenal (K) 24%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.