Auckland 1-0 Perth Glory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.43
Over 2.5
63%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.0
2-3 Goals
35%
1.96
4-5 Goals
29%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.81
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
15.95
X/1
14%
4.19
X/2
6%
12.5
X/X
10%
7.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.6
2/2
6%
9.37
2/X
6%
17.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.6 — our 13% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
63%
-0.4pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.1pp
17%
Away Win
17%
+0.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.1pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.98/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/2.23
+21% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
406 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
30.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
24.4 Crosses 16.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auckland
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Perth Glory
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.94 xG 0.95
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
409 Passes 195
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
11.01.2025 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-0 HT 1-0 Auckland Auckland AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
1-0
AWAY Perth Glory
2.66 xG 0.34
61% Ball Possession 39%
28 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
14 Corners 3
406 Passes 226
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
46 Box Touches 19
35 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Perth Glory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland edged past Perth Glory 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Auckland as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Auckland had 61% of the ball to Perth Glory's 39%, shots finished 28-4, expected goals 2.66 to 0.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auckland's control.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Perth Glory?

Auckland 1-0 Perth Glory in the Australia - A-League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Perth Glory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Auckland 63%, draw 20%, Perth Glory 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auckland) ✗ Over 2.5
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
27 Apr 2025
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