Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 May 2025

Cuiaba
1-0 HT 1-0
Vila Nova
📅27/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie B – 2025

Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
28%
2.77
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.36
Over 2.5
35%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.44
No
67%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-0.8pp
28%
Draw
32%
-4.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
70%
-5.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
30%
+5.0pp
33%
BTTS Yes
37%
-4.2pp
67%
BTTS No
63%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cuiaba v Vila Nova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cuiaba EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.50/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.11
+32% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
326 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
20.9 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8

Cuiaba vs Vila Nova Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cuiaba
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
1.31 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
342 Passes 342
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.03.2023 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-1 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRVK
16.03.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-2 Cuiaba Cuiaba BRVK
08.02.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 3-0 HT 2-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BRVK
30.11.2019 Cuiaba Cuiaba 1-2 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
28.08.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Cuiaba Cuiaba BR2

Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cuiaba
1-0
AWAY Vila Nova
0.79 xG 0.22
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
372 Passes 305
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 5
26 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cuiaba vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cuiaba nicked a narrow win over Vila Nova 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cuiaba as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (67%) came in.

On the day, Cuiaba had 55% of the ball to Vila Nova's 45%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.79 to 0.22.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Cuiaba and 1.20 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?

Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cuiaba win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cuiaba 42%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cuiaba), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cuiaba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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