Changchun YaTai 1-0 Cangzhou Mighty Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 27 Jul 2024

📅27/07/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
24%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.38
Over 2.5
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.76
No
43%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.05
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
15%
7.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.63
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.7
X/1
10%
3.67
X/2
8%
15.7
X/X
11%
7.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.95
2/2
11%
11.6
2/X
5%
19.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.95 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
68%
-15.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.0pp
24%
Away Win
13%
+11.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.6pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Cangzhou Mighty Lions EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / -22%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
431 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
Crosses 9.8
Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changchun YaTai
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Cangzhou Mighty Lions
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.62 xG 1.49
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
410 Passes 324
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.04.2024 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions 2-0 HT 1-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
20.08.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 3-1 HT 1-0 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions ÇİN
19.05.2023 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions 2-4 HT 0-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
26.11.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-2 HT 0-1 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions ÇİN
28.08.2022 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions 1-2 HT 0-1 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Changchun YaTai
1-0
AWAY Cangzhou Mighty Lions
2.01 xG 0.29
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
306 Passes 297
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Changchun YaTai vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Changchun YaTai nicked a narrow win over Cangzhou Mighty Lions 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Changchun YaTai as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Changchun YaTai had 50% of the ball to Cangzhou Mighty Lions's 50%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.01 to 0.29 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Changchun YaTai's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Changchun YaTai had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Changchun YaTai and 1.60 for Cangzhou Mighty Lions.

What was the final score of Changchun YaTai vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions?

Changchun YaTai 1-0 Cangzhou Mighty Lions in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 27/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changchun YaTai vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Changchun YaTai win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Changchun YaTai 53%, draw 23%, Cangzhou Mighty Lions 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Changchun YaTai) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Changchun YaTai) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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