Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Newcastle — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Newcastle Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Newcastle
FAK
3-0
HT 0-0
Newcastle
FAK
Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal squeezed past Newcastle 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Arsenal had 49% of the ball to Newcastle's 51%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.52 to 1.10.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Arsenal and 0.00 for Newcastle.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle?
Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle in the Friendlies on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Newcastle?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 49%, draw 27%, Newcastle 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.