Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Arsenal
İNLK
0-2
HT 0-1
Newcastle United
İNLK
1-0
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal edged past Newcastle United 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Arsenal had 49% of the ball to Newcastle United's 51%, shots finished 15-13.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arsenal and 1.17 for Newcastle United.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
Arsenal 3-2 Newcastle United in the Friendlies on 27/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 50%, draw 26%, Newcastle United 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.