Newcastle United 1-0 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 2 Nov 2024

Newcastle United
1-0 HT 1-0
Arsenal
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
40%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.3
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 29% vs market 24.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.83
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
11%
7.74
X/2
15%
4.31
X/X
14%
4.74
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.57
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
26%
+9.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
40%
Away Win
49%
-8.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 53%
+5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.29/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.11
+13% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +9%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 82%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
17.7 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9

Newcastle United vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Arsenal
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.06 xG 1.21
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
233 Passes 376
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.02.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 4-1 HT 2-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
04.11.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
07.05.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
03.01.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
16.05.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.11.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Newcastle United 1-0 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
1-0
AWAY Arsenal
0.52 xG 1.05
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
200 Passes 433
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United edged past Arsenal 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Newcastle United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Newcastle United had 36% of the ball to Arsenal's 64%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.52 to 1.05 — on chances, Arsenal could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Newcastle United and 1.33 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Newcastle United 1-0 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 35%, draw 25%, Arsenal 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
2 Nov 2024
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