Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 24 Feb 2024

Arsenal
4-1 HT 2-0
Newcastle United
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
31%
2.59
Over 2.5
69%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
5.68
2-3 Goals
32%
2.03
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
35%
2.62
6+ Goals
17%
6.16
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.62 — our 35% vs market 32.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.9
X/1
27%
3.71
X/2
7%
15.35
X/X
9%
7.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.8
2/2
6%
10.8
2/X
5%
18.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
67%
-6.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.1pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.3pp
31%
Under 2.5
35%
-4.0pp
69%
Over 2.5
65%
+4.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.7pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 17%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +17%
1.99/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.55
+1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +22%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
486 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
37.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
21.6 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Arsenal vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.33 xG 0.93
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
424 Passes 272
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
07.05.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
03.01.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 0-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
16.05.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.11.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
02.05.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-2 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
4-1
AWAY Newcastle United
69% Ball Possession 31%
11 Total Shots 0
4 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 0
292 Passes 111
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
31 Box Touches 0
10 Crosses 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal swept aside Newcastle United 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (69%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 69% of the ball to Newcastle United's 31%, shots finished 11-0.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal and 0.50 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Arsenal 4-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 60%, draw 21%, Newcastle United 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
24 Feb 2024
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