Aston Villa 4-2 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 24 Feb 2024

Aston Villa
4-2 HT 3-1
Nottingham Forest
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.96
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.2
X/1
18%
4.04
X/2
7%
10.7
X/X
7%
6.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.0
2/2
10%
7.39
2/X
9%
15.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.9pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 23%
+9% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -12%
2.29/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.43
+22% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
15.2 Crosses 13.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 0.58
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 Passes 261
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-0 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
08.04.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
10.10.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
13.03.2019 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-3 HT 1-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL
28.11.2018 Aston Villa Aston Villa 5-5 HT 3-3 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
13.01.2018 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL

Aston Villa 4-2 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
4-2
AWAY Nottingham Forest
3.57 xG 2.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
469 Passes 321
92% Pass Accuracy 86%
40 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa beat Nottingham Forest 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 58% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 42%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 3.57 to 2.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aston Villa and 1.50 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Aston Villa 4-2 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 53%, draw 24%, Nottingham Forest 23%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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