Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arsenal v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals
Arsenal vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Arsenal
İNLK
0-2
HT 0-1
Newcastle United
İNLK
1-0
HT 0-0
Arsenal
İNP
0-2
HT 0-1
Arsenal
İNP
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal edged past Newcastle United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Arsenal made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Arsenal had 51% of the ball to Newcastle United's 49%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.64 to 1.86 — the balance of chances actually favoured Newcastle United.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.17 for Newcastle United.
What was the final score of Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 39%, draw 30%, Newcastle United 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.