Lamphun Warrior 3-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 27 Aug 2024

📅27/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.07
Over
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
42%
4-5
21%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
57%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lamphun Warrior The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya The Market 22%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
0.54/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.93
-37% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -28%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
407 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 74%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
13.1 Crosses 10.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lamphun Warrior
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.25 xG 1.11
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
268 Passes 192
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.03.2023 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior 1-0 HT 1-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
22.10.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-1 HT 0-0 Lamphun Warrior Lamphun Warrior TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lamphun Warrior
3-3
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.54 xG 3.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
247 Passes 253
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lamphun Warrior and Nong Bua Pitchaya shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lamphun Warrior at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lamphun Warrior had 50% of the ball to Nong Bua Pitchaya's 50%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.54 to 3.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lamphun Warrior had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.00 for Nong Bua Pitchaya.

What was the final score of Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Lamphun Warrior 3-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya in the Thailand - 1st Division on 27/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lamphun Warrior vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lamphun Warrior win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lamphun Warrior 47%, draw 25%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lamphun Warrior) ✗ Under 2.5
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