Milan 3-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Sep 2024

Milan
3-0 HT 3-0
Lecce
📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Milan vs Lecce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.32
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
23%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
23%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.31 — our 26% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
21.45
X/1
22%
3.54
X/2
8%
18.65
X/X
9%
8.13
2/1
9%
21.2
2/2
10%
13.8
2/X
7%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-18.0pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.7pp
23%
Away Win
11%
+12.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Lecce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
1.85/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.65
-1% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +15%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
447 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 77%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
22.0 Crosses 13.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7

Milan vs Lecce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Lecce
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.22
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
496 Passes 254
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 2-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
11.11.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
23.04.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
14.01.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
22.06.2020 Lecce Lecce 1-4 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
20.10.2019 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA

Milan 3-0 Lecce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-0
AWAY Lecce
1.65 xG 0.49
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
457 Passes 331
92% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan ran out comfortable winners over Lecce 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Milan had 57% of the ball to Lecce's 43%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.65 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Milan and 1.17 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Milan vs Lecce?

Milan 3-0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Milan 53%, draw 23%, Lecce 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5
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