Milan 3-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Apr 2024

Milan
3-0 HT 2-0
Lecce
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.96
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.13
6+ Goals
13%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
20.3
X/1
21%
3.45
X/2
6%
15.85
X/X
9%
6.63
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
8%
12.95
2/X
7%
21.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
68%
-12.0pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.6pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -14%
1.71/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.75
-14% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
437 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
21.9 Crosses 13.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Lecce
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.49 xG 1.36
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
481 Passes 245
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
23.04.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
14.01.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
22.06.2020 Lecce Lecce 1-4 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
20.10.2019 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
11.03.2012 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-0
AWAY Lecce
1.49 xG 0.53
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 1
574 Passes 300
92% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan swept aside Lecce 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Milan had 64% of the ball to Lecce's 36%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.49 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Milan and 1.17 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Milan vs Lecce?

Milan 3-0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Milan 56%, draw 24%, Lecce 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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