Roma 1-0 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Apr 2024

Roma
1-0 HT 1-0
Lazio
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
20.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
17%
4.51
X/2
10%
7.32
X/X
12%
4.02
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
11%
5.7
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.39/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.60
-3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
17.8 Crosses 12.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lazio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
372 Passes 442
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2024 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTK
12.11.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
19.03.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
06.11.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
20.03.2022 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 3-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
26.09.2021 Lazio Lazio 3-2 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-0
AWAY Lazio
0.71 xG 0.44
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
320 Passes 386
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roma vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma nicked a narrow win over Lazio 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Roma had 46% of the ball to Lazio's 54%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 0.71 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Roma and 1.00 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Roma vs Lazio?

Roma 1-0 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Roma 45%, draw 29%, Lazio 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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