Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
30%
3.17
Over 2.5
70%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.68
No
41%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
8.53
2-3 Goals
34%
2.38
4-5 Goals
32%
2.37
6+ Goals
19%
3.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
24.85
X/1
19%
3.71
X/2
7%
24.0
X/X
6%
11.2
2/1 EV+ ✓
12%
18.8
2/2
10%
15.65
2/X
6%
23.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.8 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-13.6pp
18%
Draw
15%
+3.8pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.8pp
30%
Under 2.5
28%
+1.5pp
70%
Over 2.5
72%
-1.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.8pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
2.38/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/2.71
+25% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -7%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
477 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
18.3 Crosses 13.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bochum
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.56 xG 1.12
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
404 Passes 197
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-1 HT 1-1 Bochum Bochum AL1
26.08.2023 Bochum Bochum 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
28.04.2023 Bochum Bochum 1-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
08.02.2023 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
05.11.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 3-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
30.04.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-4 HT 2-2 Bochum Bochum AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4-2
AWAY Bochum
3.25 xG 1.27
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 0
492 Passes 206
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
57 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund got the better of Bochum 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 66% of the ball to Bochum's 34%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 3.25 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.33 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum?

Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 61%, draw 18%, Bochum 21%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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