Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.96
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
7.35
2-3 Goals
35%
2.23
4-5 Goals
29%
2.45
6+ Goals
19%
4.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
17.65
X/1
19%
3.91
X/2
6%
14.55
X/X
8%
8.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
18.05
2/2
8%
9.33
2/X
7%
17.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.05 — our 9% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.4pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.2pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.1pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+5.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.3pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
2.21/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/2.19
+34% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -13%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
431 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
16.8 Crosses 15.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bochum
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.45 xG 1.20
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
414 Passes 196
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Bochum Bochum 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
28.04.2023 Bochum Bochum 1-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
08.02.2023 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
05.11.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 3-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
30.04.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-4 HT 2-2 Bochum Bochum AL1
11.12.2021 Bochum Bochum 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3-1
AWAY Bochum
2.96 xG 0.51
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
426 Passes 203
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
53 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund beat Bochum 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 64% of the ball to Bochum's 36%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 2.96 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.33 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum?

Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 62%, draw 21%, Bochum 18%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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