Union Berlin 1-0 Darmstadt 98 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.88
6+ Goals
14%
17.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.21
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.15
X/1
24%
3.83
X/2
6%
9.38
X/X
16%
4.73
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
7%
7.68
2/X
7%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Darmstadt 98 EU Bookmakers 23%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +11%
1.36/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.23
-26% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
20.9 Crosses 16.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Darmstadt 98
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.71 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
275 Passes 340
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 1-4 HT 1-3 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
05.05.2019 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 2-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
01.12.2018 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 2-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2
28.04.2018 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 3-1 HT 3-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
24.11.2017 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-3 HT 1-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL2
13.03.2015 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 5-0 HT 2-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
1-0
AWAY Darmstadt 98
2.55 xG 1.14
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
377 Passes 345
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Darmstadt 98
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin edged past Darmstadt 98 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 50% of the ball to Darmstadt 98's 50%, shots finished 21-16, expected goals 2.55 to 1.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Berlin's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Darmstadt 98 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Union Berlin and 2.50 for Darmstadt 98.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Darmstadt 98?

Union Berlin 1-0 Darmstadt 98 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Darmstadt 98?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 53%, draw 28%, Darmstadt 98 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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