AS Eupen 3-1 KRC Genk II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.55
No
40%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.6
2-3 Goals
34%
1.9
4-5 Goals
32%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.0pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Eupen EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY KRC Genk II EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +2%
1.76/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.95
+8% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
Crosses 15.3
Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Eupen
3-1
AWAY KRC Genk II
2.45 xG 1.32
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
399 Passes 223
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AS Eupen got the better of KRC Genk II 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AS Eupen as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AS Eupen had 61% of the ball to KRC Genk II's 39%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.45 to 1.32.

What was the final score of AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?

AS Eupen 3-1 KRC Genk II in the Belgium - 1st Division on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Eupen vs KRC Genk II?

Before kick-off our model rated a AS Eupen win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AS Eupen 44%, draw 24%, KRC Genk II 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AS Eupen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AS Eupen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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