Heracles 2-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 27 Sep 2024

Heracles
2-1 HT 1-0
Heerenveen
📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Heracles vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
30%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
4.03
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
10%
6.35
X/2
9%
5.36
X/X
12%
5.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
2/2
16%
3.17
2/X
10%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.4pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.7pp
30%
Away Win
40%
-10.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.6pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heracles v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.34/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.47
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +0%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 81%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
22.8 Crosses 18.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1

Heracles vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Heerenveen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.34
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
338 Passes 379
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
28.10.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 2-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.03.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
04.12.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
23.01.2021 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
20.12.2020 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL

Heracles 2-1 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
2-1
AWAY Heerenveen
1.49 xG 0.63
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
240 Passes 477
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles nicked a narrow win over Heerenveen 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Heracles made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Heracles had 37% of the ball to Heerenveen's 63%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 1.49 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heerenveen led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Heracles and 1.50 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Heerenveen?

Heracles 2-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Heracles 39%, draw 31%, Heerenveen 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heracles), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heracles) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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