Kawasaki Frontale 5-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 27% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.79
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
10%
12.8
X/1
15%
4.84
X/2
8%
7.03
X/X
12%
5.22
2/1
5%
23.15
2/2
12%
4.7
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.54/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.24
-6% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
18.1 Crosses 16.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 1.44
52% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
451 Passes 433
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.06.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
29.09.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-3 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
30.08.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JPK
11.03.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
09.08.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
05.05.2017 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kawasaki Frontale
5-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
2.76 xG 1.79
36% Ball Possession 64%
17 Total Shots 22
10 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
294 Passes 567
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
28 Box Touches 48
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kawasaki Frontale vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kawasaki Frontale cruised past Albirex Niigata 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kawasaki Frontale as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kawasaki Frontale had 36% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 64%, shots finished 17-22, expected goals 2.76 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.33 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Kawasaki Frontale vs Albirex Niigata?

Kawasaki Frontale 5-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kawasaki Frontale vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kawasaki Frontale 46%, draw 27%, Albirex Niigata 27%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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