Zalgiris Vilnius 3-1 FK Dainava Alytus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.22
Draw
25%
5.28
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.6
No
61%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
78%
-16.5pp
25%
Draw
16%
+9.0pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
34%
+4.8pp
61%
BTTS No
66%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus EU Bookmakers 9%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.43/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/4.83
-1% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -55%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
482 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 186 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
5W-1D-0L
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.04.2024 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 4-0 HT 2-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
03.03.2024 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-1 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
12.11.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
20.08.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-2 HT 0-0 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
11.06.2023 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus LIT1
19.04.2023 FK Dainava Alytus FK Dainava Alytus 0-2 HT 0-1 Zalgiris Vilnius Zalgiris Vilnius LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zalgiris Vilnius
3-1
AWAY FK Dainava Alytus
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 0
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Dainava Alytus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius beat FK Dainava Alytus 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Zalgiris Vilnius as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zalgiris Vilnius had 67% of the ball to FK Dainava Alytus's 33%, shots finished 17-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zalgiris Vilnius had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Zalgiris Vilnius and 0.00 for FK Dainava Alytus.

What was the final score of Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Zalgiris Vilnius 3-1 FK Dainava Alytus in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Dainava Alytus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zalgiris Vilnius win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Zalgiris Vilnius 61%, draw 25%, FK Dainava Alytus 14%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zalgiris Vilnius) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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