Katowice 3-1 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.97
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.12
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.36
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.7
X/1
9%
6.59
X/2
9%
5.09
X/X
7%
4.96
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
22%
3.04
2/X
9%
12.5
Value flag · 1/X at 12.7 — our 13% vs market 5.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.24/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.07
+64% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 82%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
24.9 Crosses 21.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 25
6 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 11
26.09.2018 Katowice Katowice 1-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
3-1
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.61 xG 1.37
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
238 Passes 365
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 25
29 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice got the better of Pogon Szczecin 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Katowice made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Katowice had 43% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 57%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.61 to 1.37.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin?

Katowice 3-1 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Katowice 33%, draw 29%, Pogon Szczecin 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
27 Sep 2024
21:30 Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Lodz Analysis →