Fortaleza vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fortaleza v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Sport Recife
BRCDN
1-1
HT 0-0
Fortaleza
BRCDN
0-1
HT 0-1
Fortaleza
BR1
1-0
HT 0-0
Sport Recife
BR1
1-0
HT 1-0
Fortaleza
BR1
Fortaleza 1-0 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics
Fortaleza edged past Sport Recife 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Fortaleza had 53% of the ball to Sport Recife's 47%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.87 to 0.67.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fortaleza and 0.33 for Sport Recife.
What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Sport Recife?
Fortaleza 1-0 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Sport Recife?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 47%, draw 28%, Sport Recife 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.