Morpeth Town 1-3 Southport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 27 Sep 2025

Morpeth Town
1-3 HT 0-2
Southport
📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2025/2026

Morpeth Town vs Southport Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
18%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.5pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morpeth Town v Southport — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Southport EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
2.30/3.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.30
+64% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
276 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Morpeth Town vs Southport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport beat Morpeth Town 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 22% / 41% — and on the day Southport made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

What was the final score of Morpeth Town vs Southport?

Morpeth Town 1-3 Southport in the England - FA Cup on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morpeth Town vs Southport?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southport win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Morpeth Town 37%, draw 22%, Southport 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southport), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Southport) ✓ BTTS Yes
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