Chester 5-1 Curzon Ashton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.7pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chester EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Curzon Ashton EU Bookmakers 32%
-66% / -66% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
0.00/4.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/0.91
-100% / -70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +67%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chester
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Curzon Ashton
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2025 Chester Chester 1-1 HT 1-0 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
29.03.2025 Chester Chester 1-1 HT 1-1 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
26.10.2024 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton 4-0 HT 3-0 Chester Chester İCON
09.03.2024 Chester Chester 0-0 HT 0-0 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
28.10.2023 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton 0-1 HT 0-0 Chester Chester İCON
14.01.2023 Chester Chester 2-2 HT 0-1 Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton İCON
POST-MATCH Chester vs Curzon Ashton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chester cruised past Curzon Ashton 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chester as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chester and 1.33 for Curzon Ashton.

What was the final score of Chester vs Curzon Ashton?

Chester 5-1 Curzon Ashton in the England - FA Cup on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chester vs Curzon Ashton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chester 43%, draw 27%, Curzon Ashton 30%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chester), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chester) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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