Najma 1-2 Al Fayha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒18:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.65
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
16%
3.93
6+ Goals
7%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.65 — our 37% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
31%
+7.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Najma EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Fayha EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
Crosses 19.6
Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Najma
1-2
AWAY Al Fayha
0.29 xG 1.24
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
320 Passes 279
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Najma vs Al Fayha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Fayha squeezed past Najma 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Al Fayha made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Najma had 54% of the ball to Al Fayha's 46%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.29 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Najma vs Al Fayha?

Najma 1-2 Al Fayha in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Najma vs Al Fayha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Najma win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Najma 38%, draw 25%, Al Fayha 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Najma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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