Sampdoria 1-0 Mantova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 27% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.95
X/1
18%
4.06
X/2
11%
10.25
X/X
12%
4.9
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
7%
7.96
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Mantova EU Bookmakers 22%
-14% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -26%
1.36/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.90
-24% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -48%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.3 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
1-0
AWAY Mantova
1.60 xG 0.76
30% Ball Possession 70%
20 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
187 Passes 561
73% Pass Accuracy 90%
31 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Mantova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sampdoria squeezed past Mantova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sampdoria as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sampdoria had 30% of the ball to Mantova's 70%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.60 to 0.76.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Mantova?

Sampdoria 1-0 Mantova in the Italy - Serie B on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Mantova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 49%, draw 26%, Mantova 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sampdoria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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